And the Pendulum Swings: How the election results of 2024 will affect the arts

 By Patricia Frischer

In a zoom webinar in November,  American from the Arts (AFTA) arranged a panel of speakers to try to give us a clearer picture of what the future might mean for the arts post-election. These last days before the end of the year are always called the Lame Duck session, and very little is expected to happen until the handover. The word often used to describe our future is uncertainty.

We know that there was a lower turn out for this election, but Trump did manage a bigger majority. The Republican only have a very slight majority in the House and but now also hold the Senate. This is known as the trifecta and is very powerful. Although cabinet appointments from the house and senate could affect these balances, only time will tell. 

Bill Harper, partner Harper Downing, helped us understand that Trumps may well shift arts funding priorities with major cuts expected:

·       Diversity, Equity and Inclusion policies will be discontinued

·       America’s 250^th birthday celebration plans in 2026 will be ramped up. (Maybe a big opportunity for the arts)

·       An emphasis on art programs that reach more rural areas and veterans

·       Even more support of small businesses

·       More individuals will be helped by the arts, especially those loyal to Trump.

David Reed, Policy Director Brownstein,  tacked the subject of the Reconciliation process: this is a special way to fast track certain budget legislation in the Senate by enabling just majority (instead of a 60-vote supermajority) for budget issues only with no filibuster from the Senate allowed.  Reconciliation cannot affect the NEA which is discretionary funding. But caps could be put on spending and tax reduction in general could ultimately affect the arts. Then there is Schedule F, which is a way to fire civil servants and gov appointed positions, and that could undermine the arts. Good news is that tax deductions for charity donation might come back for non-itemizers.

Americans for the Arts sees the Republican strategy as one to raise disruption where ever possible. But we all know the government could strive for more efficiency.  There will probably be work force reduction and re-locations, and a mandate to come back to in person office work but with a smaller government.  Some describe this a death by a thousand cuts. Time will tell as the civil service is a well organized body that goes through political and appointed leadership changes over and over.

There was then a presentation of the new members and the old guard that are supporters of the arts in the House and Senate by Tooshar Swain, Public Policy Director AFTA, and Olivia Tarpley., Public Policy Manager AFTA,  There was a lose of some key champions for the arts and lots of unknowns. But the bipartisan Senate Cultural Caucus leadership is still very strong with Susan Collins (R Maine) and David Reed (D Rhode Island) and House Art Caucus  with Mike Turner (R Ohio)  and Chellie Pingree (D Maine) with good track records.

When it comes to Governors and Mayors, although there were changes, the balance stayed about the same and almost equal. There are just a few more split legislatures. Split legislatures made for good government in general so that may be a good sign.

You have to remember that the local not federal agencies are the largest funders for the arts. But there was speculation that if the NEA was somehow eliminated, then those states that gave matching funds to the NEA might also stop their funding. Good news is that the few ballot initiatives for funding the arts around the county did pass, although AFTA did say it was hard to track this information. If you know of any others, please contact jay@artsusa.org.

Finally there was a strong please for extra support through advocacy and engagement.

Here is the link to see the Webinar slide show yourself:  https://www.americansforthearts.org/advocate/2024-post-election-webinar-impact-on-the-arts

The webinar itself will be uploaded to the AFTA utube site probably in Dec, 2024: https://www.youtube.com/@americans4arts/videos  

Here is the link to add your support: https://www.artsactionfund.org/arts-action-center?vvsrc=/campaigns/119049/respond

The is the link to the June AFTA conference in Ohio: https://afta2025convention.org/

If you want to know more specifics about California then The State of Funding and Legislation for Arts, Culture & Creativity in California is on Dec 11 at noon PT presented by Californian for the Arts. With the 2024 election, more than 25% of the CA legislature is new, Federal Funding resources are increasingly uncertain and the California state budget remains unstable.

There is a further Americans for the Arts Webinar on Jan 22 at noon PT: Advocacy 101: Introduction to the new 119th Congress